South African scenarios 2024: politics, violence and growth in the rainbow nation
South Africa may experience a political turning point in the aftermath of the December 2017 National Conference of the ruling African National Congress. Building on an associated publication, Economics, governance and instability in South Africa, this paper describes three different futures for the country.
The first scenario is an uninspiring and business-as-usual Bafana Bafana scenario, an alarming downward scenario called Nation Divided, where the ‘traditionalist’ camp within the ruling party holds sway, and a desirable Mandela Magic scenario, where ‘reformists’ triumph and begin to address some of the country’s most pressing challenges. A related policy brief, Rainbow at risk, presents recommendations.
About the authors
Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and head of African Futures and Innovation at the Pretoria office of the ISS.
Ciara Aucoin is a researcher in the African Futures and Innovation programme at the ISS in Pretoria.