What are the prospects for state fragility in Africa? This event launches a paper based on a forthcoming in-depth Institute for Security Studies monograph that assesses long-term structural dynamics in Africa by forecasting the future of Africa’s 26 ‘more fragile’ countries. In conducting the forecast using the International Futures (IFs) model, co-authors Jakkie Cilliers and Timothy D Sisk argue that fragility should be understood as a syndrome, or set of related conditions, that operates in a system that is mutually reinforcing.
Chair: Dr Julia Schünemann, senior researcher, ISS
Presenter: Dr Jakkie Cilliers, executive director, ISS
Respondent: Dr Paul-Simon Handy, head of the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division, ISS
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Presentation by Dr Jakkie Cilliers