Home / Events / Breakfast briefing: Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa
Breakfast briefing: Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa
Date: 28 January 2014
Time: 08h30 - 11h00
Venue: Radisson Blu Hotel, Addis Ababa

Today key African countries have economic growth rates significantly in excess of global averages, allowing for changes in how external partners like the EU, China and the US engage with Africa. From a very low base, Africa is making progress although growth is highly differentiated. There are other encouraging signs: the frequency and intensity of armed conflict has come down since the early 1990s, new institutions and approaches to preventing conflict have been created, and recent gains in development.

These are some of the findings from the latest ISS monograph that uses the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to provide a long-term forecast of 26 ‘more fragile’ African countries. It concludes that ten ‘worst case’ countries will remain mired in a fragility syndrome for several decades. Despite sterling growth elsewhere, these countries are trapped in a cycle of poverty, inequality, violence and poor governance from which they cannot easily escape.

The monograph by Dr Jakkie Cilliers and Prof Timothy D Sisk will be launched and made available at the seminar. It is also available at:

Welcome: Amb Olusegun Akinsanya, Regional Representative and Senior Advisor, ISS Addis Ababa

Chair: Dr Paul-Simon Handy, Head, Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division, ISS

Speaker: Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director, ISS


  • Désiré Assogbavi, Head, Oxfam Office to the African Union, Addis Ababa
  • Dr Kojo Busia, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa


08h30: Breakfast buffet
09h00: Seminar begins
11h00: Seminar ends

Please note: For all ISS events, specific permission must be sought from the speaker(s) concerned before anything they said can be quoted, unless indicated otherwise.

This event is made possible through funding provided by the members of the ISS Partnership Forum: Governments of Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the USA.
Radisson Blu Hotel
Addis Ababa
Beakal Bisrat
Phone: +25 111 515 6367
Olusegun Akinsanya
Phone: +25 111 515 6367
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