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African futures, conflict trends and the African Union's response
Date: 5 November 2013
Time: 08h30 - 11h00
Venue: Radisson Blu Hotel, Addis Ababa

Africa faces a collective paradox: on the positive side, the frequency and intensity of armed conflict has been halved from the peak levels of the early 1990s. New institutions and approaches to preventing conflict have been created, and recent gains in development are encouraging.

Africa’s more fragile countries, however, still witness recurring or cyclical patterns of violence. Key structural drivers of violence imply a continuation of these trends.

Using a large-scale integrated global modelling system, Dr Jakkie Cilliers from the ISS will provide a forecast of violence and fragility in Africa up to 2050. Mr Sivuyile Bam from the AU Peace Support Operations Department will discuss the implications of these conflict trends for Africa’s collective responses.

On the occasion of the annual meeting of the International Advisory Board of the Training for Peace Programme, the ISS and the Royal Norwegian Embassy in Addis Ababa have the pleasure to invite you to this open breakfast seminar. 

Breakfast is served from 08h30, seminar starts at 09h00.

Opening and welcome:

  • Ambassador Olusegun Akinsaya, Regional Director, ISS Addis Ababa
  • HE Odd-Inge Kvalheim, Ambassador of Norway


  • Ambassador Olusegun Akinsanya, Regional Director, ISS Addis Ababa

Keynote speakers:

  • Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director, ISS
  • Sivuyile Bam, Head of the Peace Support Operations Division, Peace and Security Department, African Union Commission (AUPSOD)


  • Vasu Gounden, Executive Director of the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD).
  • Dr Kwesi Aning, Director, Academic Affairs & Research Department, Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC)

Please note: For all ISS events, specific permission must be sought from the speaker(s) concerned before anything they said can be quoted, unless indicated otherwise.

This seminar is based on the following two papers:

This event is made possible through funding provided by the Royal Norwegian Embassy. The ISS is also grateful for the support of the following core partners: the governments of Norway, Sweden, Australia and Denmark.
Radisson Blu Hotel
Addis Ababa
Sossina Mekonnen
Phone: + 251 115 15 63 20
Amb. Olusegun Akinsanya
Phone: + 251 115 15 63 20
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